But here, as we near January 2025, there are several hungry questions itching at what will happen at the pumps. Fuel suddenly and very clearly represents a major slice of any household budgets, and there’s a lot of ripple effect across the economy-transports and then the food prices. Some exploration into petrol pricing factors should provide some insight into projections for the start of the new year.
Key Factors Influencing Petrol Prices
- Global Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices are among the key determinants of petrol prices. Global supply-demand dynamics as well as geopolitical tensions and OPEC policies can greatly affect these prices. Crude oil prices turned out to be moderately volatile towards the end of 2024 but are likely stable or slightly rise up until late January 2025.
- Exchange Rate Fluctuations
The USD/ZAR exchange rate is very pivotal because crude oil is traded dollars while strong rand will cushion the increases in the oil price whereas the weak one will magnify increase costs. Based on recent developments in late 2024, it indicates a slight weakening of the rand which could lead to a hike in petrol prices.
- Tax Format and Government Levies
Taxes and levies between the General Fuel Levy and the Road Accident Fund Levy involve fixed components of the petrol price. Changes in these components, however, will directly affect the price at the pump once either is included in the budget of the national government or pronounced in legislative announcements of government.
- Seasonal Demand and Local Factors
January typically sees slightly lower fuel demands compared to the holiday period, which may help stabilize prices. However, other local factors, such as refinery maintenance or disruptions, are beyond these two factors and could have a bearing on price and supply.
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), effective 22 December.
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | increase of 10 cents |
| Petrol 95 | increase of 3 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | decrease of 3 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | decrease of 0 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | decrease of 14 cents |
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $73.71 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R17.92/$.
Predictions for January 2025 Petrol Prices
From the data and trend analysis at present, petrol prices in South Africa are expected to maintain an upward trend of slight increase in price in January 2025. This prediction is justified by:
Crude Oil Projections: Brent crude oil prices are estimated to hover somewhat between $85 and $90 per barrel in early 2025 by most analysts.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Rand will trade between R19.00 and R19.50, such that the rates are slightly weaker than it will be in late 2024.
Inflationary Pressures: Internal and external sources for inflation may push up the prices of costs for operations and logistics marginally.
While exact figures keep changing based on unforeseen happenings, the South Africans must brace themselves for another possible hike of 20-40 cents/litre from the December 2024 rates.
How to Stay Updated
- Check Monthly Announcements: The fuel price would be adjusted by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy on monthly basis, most time announced on the first Wednesday of each month.
- Monitor Exchange Rates: Keep an eye on Rand-Dollar exchange rate trends to study the anticipated impact.
- World Events Updates: Geopolitical developments and OPEC meetings can highly sway the crude oil price.
Conclusion
True, a small increase for most fretting drivers with respect to having to spend the rest of their salary nearly every month, putting petrol in their cars would eventually require planning ahead and driving more economically as well as educating themselves.
